Polytechnic University of Valencia Congress, CARMA 2020 - 3rd International Conference on Advanced Research Methods and Analytics

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Measuring and Forecasting Job-Search in Italy using Machine Learning
Carlo Drago, Gentian Hoxhalli

Last modified: 10-07-2020

Abstract


The Social Media are becoming more and more important to allow to measure
phenomena which are very difficult to measure on a different way. In this sense
these data can become relevant indicators which could be used in the analysis
of the business cycle. In this work we will consider data related job-search
queries on Google, in order to measure the intensity of the job-search behavior
over the time. From the queries we are able to identify how vary during the
business cycle the job-search behavior using Google. These behaviors are very
relevant because they can lead to changes in job positions (transition from
unemployed to the employed but also transitions on the job employed-
employed). So forecasting this behavior we can have tools to interpret and
analyze the business cycle. Finally we consider a forecasting approach based
on Machine Learning in order to predict over the time the job-search behavior.
The different forecasting approach considered are compared and finally
validated by considering the forecast adequacy of the different predictions
obtained.


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